tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3867814947998579434.post6711766863461619661..comments2023-09-07T01:14:13.055-07:00Comments on The Robert Scott Bell Blog: 'Return of the BIG BIRD-brained FLU-doo voodoo' or 'One Flu Over The Cuckoo's Nest Egg'Robert Scott Bellhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04911890567195817508noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3867814947998579434.post-47910147182727536332008-07-15T19:46:00.000-07:002008-07-15T19:46:00.000-07:00This is really not that difficult. Yes, there is a...This is really not that difficult.<BR/> <BR/>Yes, there is a threat of pandemic flu when it isn’t flu season because this has nothing to do with seasonal flu. An influenza pandemic can start at any time of year – spring and summer as well as fall and winter.<BR/><BR/>The threat of pandemic from the H5N1 virus has never decreased – the media lost interested so it dropped out of the headlines but the threat has been there. <BR/><BR/>This isn’t old news being paraded out as new news. It is a continuing threat.<BR/><BR/>The virus that caused the 1918 killed 50 million people. The H5N1 virus is similar to the 1918 virus.<BR/> <BR/>Many of the people who are infected at this point have had close contact with birds – this would change during a pandemic.<BR/><BR/>The point is that a pandemic begins when the virus changes and it passes easily from person to person. At that point, no contact with birds will be needed for a person to become infected. Infection will be transmitted by a person who is infected – and contagious for a day or two before they have symptoms.<BR/><BR/>Scientists are examining the RNA of the virus and it is acquiring the changes needed to pass easily from person to person.<BR/><BR/>There have not been huge numbers of people infected up to this point in time because a pandemic hasn’t yet begun.<BR/><BR/>The current fatality rate worldwide with good medical care and antiviral drugs is over 60%. In Indonesia where the virus is most active it is over 80%.<BR/><BR/>It is meaningless to talk about the numbers of people infected at this time when a pandemic hasn’t yet begun.<BR/><BR/>Americans will not need to be in “intense daily contact with sick flocks, often sharing the same living space” in order to become infected during a pandemic. Americans will not need to see a bird in order to become infected during a pandemic. The threat will come from infected people not infected birds.<BR/><BR/>Tamiflu may very well not work during a pandemic – many strains of the H5N1 virus have become Tamiflu resistant. But since it will take at least 6 to 9 months to produce and manufacture a vaccine, and since there won’t be huge quantities of vaccine when manufacturing does begin, Tamifu is the best we’ve got. <BR/><BR/>No one will have immunity to the virus and we do not have enough Tamiflu for even 25% of our population. <BR/><BR/>I don’t feel sorry for Roche or the officials in the federal government, state governments, and local governments who are doing an under whelming job at preparing for pandemic flu. I do feel sorry for the American people who for the most part are unaware of the potential problem.<BR/><BR/>--starlightAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com